Drop ARLP
Its upside and carry do not overcome the modeled −40% state at a 22% kill probability.
Ruthless Alpha Protocol · 30 September 2026
Seven pass.
ARLP gets cut.
The supplied Ruthless Luck Algorithm v1.6 applied to every position in the Income Alpha K-1 basket with explicit, reproducible scenario inputs.
THREE-STATE LAW · 25% upside · carry case · −40% kill case. The remaining probability belongs to carry.
| Ticker | Upside | Carry | P(kill) | Full Kelly | ½ Kelly cap | Basket | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPLX | +27.3% | +7.6% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 25% | KEEP |
| WES | +29.6% | +8.3% | 12% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 20% | KEEP |
| USAC | +16.1% | +8.4% | 15% | 70.8% | 35.4% | 15% | KEEP |
| BSM | +16.9% | +9.0% | 18% | 46.4% | 23.2% | 10% | KEEP |
| DKL | +29.4% | +8.5% | 18% | 78.7% | 39.4% | 10% | KEEP |
| ARLP | +14.3% | +9.8% | 22% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10% | REJECT |
| DMLP | +26.5% | +11.3% | 25% | 33.2% | 16.6% | 5% | KEEP |
| UAN | +51.8% | +11.7% | 30% | 52.1% | 26.1% | 5% | KEEP |
Seven weights pass
Every remaining basket weight is below half of its standalone Kelly fraction.
Luck stays pending
The schema emits luck only after a realized 12-month outcome. Before then, luck and survival are unknown.
Reproducible mapping
Upside is the larger of one-year adjusted return and three-year CAGR; carry is displayed cash yield; the kill state is −40%. Probabilities are 25% upside, the displayed kill probability, and the balance in carry. Kelly is capped at 100%; half Kelly is the decision cap. These are scenario assumptions—not measured probabilities—and standalone Kelly fractions ignore cross-position correlation.
Source and executable protocol: github.com/alphaonedev/ruthless-alpha-protocol.