Drop 3
TCPC, PML and PCQ: weak or negative price returns do not overcome the modeled −40% state.
Ruthless Alpha Protocol · 30 September 2026
56 of 59 pass.
TCPC, PML and PCQ get cut.
The same protocol run across REITs, BDCs, covered-call ETFs, NEOS ETFs, PIMCO closed-end funds, GOF, UTF and UTG, using Alpaca adjusted prices and trailing-12-month distributions.
THREE-STATE LAW · 25% upside · carry case · −40% kill case. The remaining probability belongs to carry.
Many hit 50%
Kelly is capped at 100%, so half the list sits at the 50% ceiling. Compare returns, not sizes, to rank those.
Yield ≠ return
TSLY, MSTY and BTCI pay out much of their value; their verdicts rest mainly on the assumed kill probability.
REITs12 keep · 0 reject
| Ticker | TTM yield | 1Y return | 3Y CAGR | Upside | P(kill) | Full Kelly | ½ Kelly cap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O | 5.9% | -4.5% | +8.1% | +8.1% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| VICI | 7.8% | -23.8% | -2.4% | -2.4% | 8% | 66.0% | 33.0% | KEEP |
| NNN | 5.9% | +3.2% | +10.6% | +10.6% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| ADC | 4.7% | -0.5% | +10.6% | +10.6% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| WPC | 5.7% | +2.5% | +12.5% | +12.5% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| STAG | 3.5% | +8.8% | +5.9% | +8.8% | 8% | 66.6% | 33.3% | KEEP |
| EPR | 6.4% | +5.7% | +18.3% | +18.3% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| PLD | 4.0% | +18.8% | +8.6% | +18.8% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| AMT | 4.2% | -10.7% | +3.9% | +3.9% | 8% | 36.2% | 18.1% | KEEP |
| AGNC | 15.6% | +9.0% | +14.6% | +14.6% | 15% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| NLY | 14.6% | +10.5% | +15.4% | +15.4% | 15% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| STWD | 13.9% | -20.1% | -0.9% | -0.9% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
BDCs11 keep · 1 reject
| Ticker | TTM yield | 1Y return | 3Y CAGR | Upside | P(kill) | Full Kelly | ½ Kelly cap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCC | 12.4% | +4.5% | +9.5% | +9.5% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| MAIN | 5.6% | -4.4% | +20.6% | +20.6% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| OBDC | 13.4% | -6.5% | +3.4% | +3.4% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| BXSL | 12.8% | +5.1% | +6.9% | +6.9% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| HTGC | 11.0% | +1.2% | +12.4% | +12.4% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| GBDC | 10.9% | +2.7% | +7.3% | +7.3% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| TSLX | 12.3% | -11.3% | +6.3% | +6.3% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| CSWC | 12.1% | +18.8% | +12.5% | +18.8% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| FSK | 20.6% | -11.6% | -3.9% | -3.9% | 18% | 59.5% | 29.7% | KEEP |
| OCSL | 15.4% | +4.8% | -4.5% | +4.8% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| PSEC | 23.6% | -2.2% | -17.7% | -2.2% | 18% | 82.1% | 41.0% | KEEP |
| TCPC | 18.7% | -20.6% | -17.5% | -17.5% | 18% | 0.0% | 0.0% | REJECT |
Covered-call ETFs11 keep · 0 reject
| Ticker | TTM yield | 1Y return | 3Y CAGR | Upside | P(kill) | Full Kelly | ½ Kelly cap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEPI | 8.1% | +7.5% | +9.7% | +9.7% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| JEPQ | 11.0% | +20.0% | +21.8% | +21.8% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| QYLD | 11.5% | +23.4% | +16.9% | +23.4% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| XYLD | 10.4% | +18.2% | +13.9% | +18.2% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| RYLD | 12.1% | +16.5% | +9.4% | +16.5% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| DIVO | 6.8% | +12.7% | +16.2% | +16.2% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| GPIX | 8.1% | +17.5% | +17.5% | +17.5% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| GPIQ | 9.8% | +23.7% | +21.6% | +23.7% | 10% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| TSLY | 72.0% | -15.0% | +12.2% | +12.2% | 20% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| NVDY | 54.3% | +26.7% | +56.8% | +56.8% | 20% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| MSTY | 96.0% | -47.4% | +19.6% | +19.6% | 20% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
NEOS ETFs9 keep · 0 reject
| Ticker | TTM yield | 1Y return | 3Y CAGR | Upside | P(kill) | Full Kelly | ½ Kelly cap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYI | 11.8% | +15.7% | +17.5% | +17.5% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| QQQI | 13.7% | +18.6% | +18.1% | +18.6% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| IWMI | 14.7% | +17.5% | +11.0% | +17.5% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| BTCI | 29.9% | -25.2% | +5.1% | +5.1% | 15% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| CSHI | 4.8% | +4.9% | +5.4% | +5.4% | 8% | 68.9% | 34.4% | KEEP |
| BNDI | 6.1% | -0.7% | +3.9% | +3.9% | 8% | 83.7% | 41.9% | KEEP |
| HYBI | 8.3% | +3.3% | +2.8% | +3.3% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| TLTI | 6.5% | -4.9% | +0.4% | +0.4% | 8% | 62.5% | 31.2% | KEEP |
| IYRI | 11.8% | +1.0% | +2.3% | +2.3% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
PIMCO CEFs10 keep · 2 reject
| Ticker | TTM yield | 1Y return | 3Y CAGR | Upside | P(kill) | Full Kelly | ½ Kelly cap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDI | 18.6% | -15.9% | +8.1% | +8.1% | 15% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| PDO | 12.9% | -5.0% | +11.9% | +11.9% | 15% | 93.4% | 46.7% | KEEP |
| PTY | 12.9% | -14.2% | +2.9% | +2.9% | 15% | 60.2% | 30.1% | KEEP |
| PCN | 12.5% | -9.9% | +3.9% | +3.9% | 15% | 61.1% | 30.5% | KEEP |
| PFL | 14.1% | -7.3% | +9.0% | +9.0% | 15% | 93.3% | 46.6% | KEEP |
| PFN | 13.7% | -5.9% | +10.9% | +10.9% | 15% | 95.8% | 47.9% | KEEP |
| PCM | 15.6% | -15.2% | -8.2% | -8.2% | 15% | 30.2% | 15.1% | KEEP |
| PHK | 13.9% | -4.5% | +9.6% | +9.6% | 15% | 93.4% | 46.7% | KEEP |
| PAXS | 13.5% | -6.8% | +10.7% | +10.7% | 15% | 93.7% | 46.8% | KEEP |
| PDX | 22.6% | +1.4% | +17.9% | +17.9% | 15% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| PML | 7.2% | -10.4% | +0.2% | +0.2% | 15% | 0.0% | 0.0% | REJECT |
| PCQ | 5.6% | -6.9% | +1.3% | +1.3% | 15% | 0.0% | 0.0% | REJECT |
Others3 keep · 0 reject
| Ticker | TTM yield | 1Y return | 3Y CAGR | Upside | P(kill) | Full Kelly | ½ Kelly cap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOF | 27.3% | -29.8% | -2.3% | -2.3% | 20% | 79.7% | 39.8% | KEEP |
| UTF | 8.4% | +9.4% | +14.8% | +14.8% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
| UTG | 7.6% | -7.1% | +18.3% | +18.3% | 8% | 100.0% | 50.0% | KEEP |
Reproducible mapping
Cash yield is the sum of regular cash distributions with ex-dates in the trailing 12 months divided by the latest price; special distributions are excluded. Upside is the larger of one-year adjusted return and three-year CAGR; funds younger than three years use the history available. The kill state is −40%, with the displayed probability as an explicit assumption rather than a measurement. Kelly is capped at 100%; half Kelly is the decision cap, and standalone fractions ignore cross-position correlation. MPW (no Alpaca prices after 30 January 2026) and NUSI (no trades in the past year) were excluded.
Source and executable protocol: github.com/alphaonedev/ruthless-alpha-protocol.